http://www.ndibd.org/blog/ en-us Nucleus CMS v3.22 © Weblog http://backend.userland.com/rss http://www.ndibd.org/blog//nucleus/nucleus2.gif http://www.ndibd.org/blog/ http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=26 Issue No. 1, December 21, 2006

Parliamentary Elections are scheduled to take place on January 22, 2007, to elect 300 members to the 9th Jatiya Sangsad (National Parliament) for a five year term. The 5 year tenure of the BNP led four party alliance ceased at midnight on 27th October and was marked by two days of intensive violence between party activists from the four party alliance and the main opposition party, the Awami League. On 29th October, the President, Dr Professor Iajuddin Ahmed was sworn in as Chief Advisor of the Caretaker Government and 10 Advisors were sworn in on the evening of 31st October. The Awami League, did not attend the Swearing- In ceremony of the Chief Advisor, with the Party President, Sheikh Hasina said they would neither accept nor reject the appointment of the President and would wait and see if he addressed their concerns.

Controversy surrounding the Chief Election Commissioner and the Bangladesh Election Commission

The Election Commission became a priority for the Caretaker Government as public confidence in the Chief Election Commissioner, Justice MA Aziz eroded. Many civil society activists and opposition party leaders asked Justice Aziz to stand down as he no longer enjoyed public support. The BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami (who appointed him), resisted all attempts to remove Justice Aziz.

Pressure mounted on Justice Aziz to step down and he was persuaded to take 3 months leave. The President addressed the nation on the issue and he assured that he would appoint two additional Election Commissioners who would be acceptable to both major political parties.

After the departure of Justice Aziz, one of the Election Commissioners appointed by the BNP Government in January, Justice Mahfuzur Rahman, ‘appointed’ himself as Acting Chief Election Commissioner on the basis that he was now the most senior Election Commissioner. Three days after his ‘self-appointment’ and before the two additional election commissioners were appointed, the Election Commission announced the election schedule with polling to take place on January 21, 2007. The final day for nominations was set at December 10, 2006 with the final day for withdrawal of nominations set for December 19, 2006. The Awami League immediately rejected this schedule saying it was impossible to hold an election with the voters list in its current form.

The same day, after the announcement of the Election Schedule, the two additional Commissioners were sworn in; however, the Awami League also rejected their appointments due to their alleged affiliations with the BNP. One of the Commissioners, Mr. Modabbir Hossain Chowdhury, had sought a nomination to run for Parliament from the BNP.

Following consultations with the parties, the election schedule was changed with Election Day scheduled for January 23, 2007. The last day for filing nominations was moved to December 21, 2006 with December 28 set as the last day for withdrawal of nominations. However, as January 23 is a Hindu Puja (religious festival) election day has been changed again to January 22, 2007.

As part of the package agreed with the Awami League, it was decided that two election commissioners who were unacceptable to the Awami League, Mr. S.M. Zakaria and Mr. Mudabbir Hossain Chowdhury, would also take ‘leave of absence’ from the Election Commission. Mr Zakaria went on leave from December 21, 2006.

Correction of the Voters List

In early December, NDI announced the findings of its second survey of the voters list. The survey found that there were 13 million extra names on the Voters List but that the main source of error was migration. The concern however, is that 13 million extra ballot papers would be available on election day and that this amount of extra ballots could favor one side or the other.

NDI, in the company of the American Ambassador, presented its findings to the Election Commission, who immediately rejected it and said there would be no further work carried out on the voters list. However, in the face of mounting pressure both domestically and internationally, the Election Commission agreed to correct the voters list with the assistance of NDI in identifying the erroneous names. This work which was initially to take place from December 8 to 10, 2006 was extended by an extra three days to facilitate the volume of work. December 17, 2006, the date set for the printers to publish to Voters List has not been met.


Writ Petition to the Legality of the appointment of the Present as Chief Advisor

A number of parties, including the Awami League and the LDP, challenged the appointment of the President as Chief Advisor, citing that the Constitutional provisions for the appointment to the position were not followed. A ruling on this petition was due on 30th November, however, in the afternoon the Chief Justice directed the High Court Judges hearing the case to cease with immediate effect. This led to protests by the Awami League lawyers and violent scenes at the Supreme Court Building. A number of senior lawyers, including Dr Kamal Hossain, Barrister Rokonuddin Mahmud, President of the Supreme Court Bar Association and Barrister Amir ul-Islam have been charged with sedition arising out of the violence at the Supreme Court.

Emergence of Liberal Democratic Party

In late October a split formed in the BNP. Former MP Col Oli Ahmed, who had become a vocal critic of Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and her son and advisor Tareque Rahman, joined forces with former President Badrudozza Chowdhury and his BDP Party to form a new political party called the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). A number of senior former BNP MP’s and activists joined this party. The homes and businesses of these people were attacked by BNP activists.

Fall-out from decision to deploy the Army

On the night of December 9, 2006, the President/Chief Advisor decided to deploy the army to assist the civil administration. All ten of the Advisors opposed the Presidents decision. He informed them he took in his capacity as President. The advisors said that this was a unilateral decision of the President which had not been discussed during a meeting earlier in the day. Four of the Advisors subsequently resigned in protest at the President/Chief Advisors decision and also for what they felt was non-cooperation by the President with the Caretaker Government. Four new advisors were appointed. However, it has been alleged that the four have links with the BNP-Jamaat Alliance. It was widely reported also that they were told they could not differ with the President/Chief Advisor’s opinion or decision.

Political Party Updates

Awami League
At a rally at Paltan Maidan in Dhaka, the Awami League, the LDP and the Jatiya Party launched their formal alliance for the election. The rally was addressed by the leaders of the three parties. The Alliance announced a dawn to dusk hartal for December 21, 2006 which was set as the final date for filing nominations and called for President Iajuddin to step down as Chief Advisor. The Alliance called for the elections to be postponed for an extra 45 days to ensure the voters list was corrected properly and to ‘neutralize’ the election administration. Barrister Rokanuddin Mahmud, President of the Supreme Court Bar Association formally joined the Awami League at this rally.

4 Party Alliance
The BNP-led four party alliance also held a rally at Paltan Maidan in Dhaka at which the former Prime Minister, Begum Khaleda Zia said it was not possible to hold the elections beyond the constitutionally stipulated 90 day period and expressed her full support for President Iajuddin Ahmed. At this rally, there were minor scuffles between activists from the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami over sitting at the Paltan ground. The Parliamentary Affairs Advisors to the former Prime Minister, Salah Uddin Qader Chowdhury, his brother and another BNP activist submit nominations to contest the same constituency in Chittagong.

Jatiya Party
H.M. Ershad, the President of the Jatiya Party had his appeal to The High Court rejected in connection with a corruption case and was sentenced to two years imprisonment. The Supreme Court has given Ershad leave to appeal the decision. GM Quader, Ershad’s younger brother, and was earlier expelled from the party by Ershad, has been now readmitted.

Supreme Court Ruling on Candidate Information

The Supreme Court placed a 3 month stay on a former High Court Ruling directing the Election Commission to collect information on candidates contesting the parliamentary elections, including their academic qualifications, professions, sources of income and any criminal records. The Supreme Court Ruling also directed the Election Commission to accept the nomination papers of the candidates without these details included.

NDI Activities

a. Pre-Election Assessment Mission

During 8-11 September, 2006, NDI conducted a Pre Election Assessment Mission. This delegation was led by Tom Daschle, former Majority and Minority Leader of the US Senate and included Mr. Mike Moore, former Prime Minister of New Zealand and former Director General of the World Trade Organization and Ms Mu Sochua, a former Minister for Women’s and Veteran’s Affairs from Cambodia. The Delegation was assisted by Mr. Tom Barry, Deputy Director for Asia Programs, NDI Washington, Dr Owen Lippert, Country Director, NDI Bangladesh, and Ms. Deborah Healy, Senior Program Manager, NDI Bangladesh and was supported by the NDI Bangladesh staff. During this mission, the delegation met with representatives of the political parties, civil society, members of the diplomatic community and NGO representatives.

b. Long Term Observation Mission

Mr. Kevin Colbourne, arrived in Dhaka in early December to manage the coordination of the Long Term Election Observation Mission. Thirteen of the expected twenty LTO’s arrived in Dhaka over the weekend of 10/11th December and after a four day orientation in the Dhaka office, deployed to the field on 15th December. Teams of two deployed to Chittagong (to cover the northern part of the Division), Comilla (also in Chittagong Division), Rajshahi (NorthWest), Sylhet (NorthEast). The LTO’s will meet with representatives of the political parties, the civil administration, law & order agencies, election officials, NGO’s and civil society in their respective deployment locations. The remaining 6 LTO’s will arrive in Bangladesh between December 24 and December 31, 2006. The will be deployed to Rangpur, Chittagong South, and the Tangail/Gazipur areas.

c. Short Term Observation Mission

To promote the integrity of the 2007 parliamentary elections, and if the security situation allows, NDI will deploy an international delegation—comprised of election and regional experts, elected officials, political party leaders and civic activists—to observe the elections. This delegation will arrive in Dhaka in mid January for approximately 10 days. NDI staff will assist in the delegation efforts by: coordinating logistics; supporting program work; providing regional expertise; and serving as election observers. The delegation will observe final election preparations, balloting, counting and tallying of the results.

On election day, the deployed teams will visit polling sites to monitor the opening of the polls and the balloting and counting processes at various polling stations around the country. Additionally, the observers will follow the counting process at the constituency level. Following the election, the delegates will reconvene in Dhaka to share their findings with fellow NDI observers. The work of the observer delegation will result in a preliminary statement, which will be prepared after the delegation debriefings and released no later than two days after election day. The statement will be based on the delegation’s observations, the findings of the pre-election mission and the long-term observers, and credible reports from domestic monitors and other international observers.




]]> Election Monitoring http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=26 Sun, 24 Dec 2006 04:59:21 -0500 http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=25 Database

Following a press conference on the 9th of December, NDI launched a relational database containing Bangladesh election results for the past three elections: 1991, 1996 and 2001. NDI is the only organization in the country to have compiled election data in this way. The database allows users to customize queries in a variety of ways in order to illustrate trends in voting behavior. To use the database, click here to download a zipped Microsoft Access file.

Survey

At the same press conference, NDI released its Second Survey on the Integrity of the Voters’ List. The survey’s goals were to determine the level of error in the list, to identify the sources of that error, and make recommendations on how to correct it. Using methodologically robust statistical analysis, a sample was created that accurately reflected the various subgroups on the list, such as SMA, urban and rural. Three types of errors were identified: excess names; duplicate names; and missing names. The vast majority of the excess names were the result of migration of voters and subsequent double registration. The largest source of error for the missing names was voters who were not present when the list was prepared. Click here to download a presentation about the survey.
]]> General http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=25 Sun, 24 Dec 2006 04:17:41 -0500 http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=23
We continue to implore the political parties to resolve their differences peacefully on the ground rules of political campaigning. ]]> General http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=23 Sat, 10 Jun 2006 06:30:30 -0400 http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=22
2001 Census shows a decadal growth rate of 1.48% (per year) for all population.
Assuming the same growth rate for 18+ population and estimated 18+ population at 71,502 thousand (as in 1), the voting age population from Sept 2001 to Sept. 2006 are as follows

Year Voting Age Population
Sept. 2001 71,501 thousand
Sept. 2002 72,560 thousand
Sept. 2003 73,644 thousand
Sept. 2004 74,734 thousand
Sept. 2005 75,840 thousand
Sept. 2006 76,963 thousand

June 2001 voting age population would be slightly less than Sept. 2006 population 76,682 thousand.

To have a voting age Population 91,314 thousand,the total population has to be over 165,125 thousand with in decadal growth rate higher than 5% compared to Census estimate of 1.4%.
]]> General http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=22 Fri, 12 May 2006 07:49:08 -0400 http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=21
]]> General http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=21 Thu, 4 May 2006 02:10:14 -0400 http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=20
With the slogan 'We will know, we will live,' for this year, the country will observe the 'World Press Freedom Day' as elsewhere in the world today. To mark the day, a two-day seminar starting from today will be held at the LGED auditorium in the capital as well as in 21 districts in other five divisions of the country. Mass-line Media Centre (MMC), Media Watch, Voice, Bangladesh NGOs Network for Radio and Communication (BNNRC), South Asian Free Media Association (SAFMA) and Young Power in Social Action (YPSA) have organised the programmes including the seminar supported by Unesco and Manusher Jonno. The theme of this year "Poverty Alleviation is possible by ensuring security of the freedom of expression, freedom of newspapers and other rights" seeks to incorporate the mass media in the fields of development and poverty alleviation.

]]> General http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=20 Wed, 3 May 2006 05:03:33 -0400 http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=19 John Kenneth Galbraith passed away yesterday at 97 years of age. He will be remembered as an advisor to several Democratic presidents including most notably John F. Kennedy.

I will remember him as the person who handed me my diploma when I graduated from Carleton College in 1977. Galbraith had a particular interest in Carleton as the alma mater of the economist he greatly admired, Thorsten Veblen. Veblen had scandalized Carleton by writing his senior essay on the economics of cannibalism and having run off with the President's daughter. Galbraith raised a fund for the restoration of the Veblen family farm house in Northfield.

What has this to do with politics in Bangladesh? Not much I suppose but Galbraith did have a line we all might contemplate as the election negotiations drag on; "In the choice between changing one's mind and proving there's no need to do so, most people get busy on the proof."

Back from Indonesia. Lots to do. The polling centre results for 1991, 1996 and 2001 should be ready soon in a useable database.

Owen Lippert
]]> General http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=19 Tue, 2 May 2006 06:23:09 -0400 http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=18
I am down in Jakarta for a few days to meet with the NDI team in Indonesia. While I was travelling, various speeches and reports have cited NDI's Integrity of the Voters' List Survey completed in 2005. The impression seems to be spreading that we concluded that 1 in 12 names on the 2000 voters' list were "ghost voters." We only said that 1 in 12 names were inaccurate and for a variety of reasons. Below is the clarification we issued yesterday. Inquiries are welcome.

Back in Dhaka soon.

Owen Lippert


Summary of clarification of National Democratic Institute for International Affairs’
2005 survey on the integrity of the 2001 voters’ list


April 27, 2006

Dhaka: Recent media reports about the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs’ 2005 survey on the integrity of the 2001 voters’ list contained incomplete information as to the results of the survey. The survey found that 1 in 12 names (6.4 million) on the voters’ list were inaccurate. The sources of inaccuracy are:

Type of error
% of total voters’list\%composition of error

a) Migration before registration deadline
(national 4.0%)\47.1%

b) Underage registration
(national 1.5%)\17.6%

c) Death before registration deadline (national 1.3%)\15.3%

d) Ghost voters
(national 1.1%)\12.9%

e) Lives elsewhere
(national 0.6%)\ 7.1%

Ghost voters accounted for 1.1% of the total voters’ list.

The results indicate that the geographic areas of highest error include the suburbs of Dhaka, Chittagong and Khulna. Rural areas had the lowest rate of error.

NDI joins with others in expressing its hope that a reasonably accurate voters’ list will be ready for the next Parliamentary general election. NDI will repeat its integrity of the voters’ list survey on the 2006 voters’ list when it becomes available.
]]> General http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=18 Fri, 28 Apr 2006 05:34:28 -0400 http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=14
As I sit here I can see interviewees sitting on the couch for our poll agent training program. This will be NDI's biggest program this year other than of course our election observation mission. I just want to take a moment to explain how important this training program should be. Poll agents are the unsung heroes of any election. For little or no remuneration, they represent the interests of the candidate where it really counts -- the polling centre. He or she will sit all day watching the proceedings to ensure they are fair for his or her respective candidate. Then they will stay long into the night while the counting takes place. The genius of the system is that the poll agents are not just watching the poll officers, but also each other. The competitive balance of mutual scrutiny ensures the integrity of the results in a way that frankly exceeds the efforts of domestic poll monitors. Why? Because the poll agents have a real interest in the outcome. They have a powerful incentive to see that their candidate's votes are completely and correctly cast and tabulated. All this said, what's the gist of our training program you may ask. I won't here go into all the details other than to stress that we want the poll agents -- of all parties -- to know their rights as poll agents. The law in Bangladesh provides poll agents with a fairly robust set of rights and we believe that the quality of the election process will be enhanced if all the poll agents are familiar with the rules. Deborah Healy, our senior program manager, is running our training program with her usual high degree of commitment and efficiency. If anyone has any questions, either she or I would be glad to answer them. Both of us are genuinely enthusiastic that our poll agent training program will make a contribution to integrity of the upcoming election. The reality of course is that it is the parties themselves which ensure the poll agent mechanism works. We are just glad to help. ]]> General http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=14 Wed, 12 Apr 2006 04:14:35 -0400 http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=13
"Bangladesh may never truly leave behind this legacy of bloodshed, corruption and distrust. But in what was once one of the sorriest places on earth, there is new hope. Form the slow but marked gains in foreign investment to Zia's decision to fight Islamic militancy head-on, Bangladesh has achieved progress that few outsiders, or even Bangladeshis, believed possible a few years ago. "All we need," says University of Dhaka Professor of Economics Abul Barkat, "is five years of good governance, and we'd be away." Surely no nation ever deserved it more."

Alex Perry, the New Delhi bureau chief for Time, wrote the article. He has touched off a firestorm or two in India and Thailand. There is not much new in the article about the current state of politics in Bangladesh.]]> General http://www.ndibd.org/blog/index.php?itemid=13 Sun, 9 Apr 2006 06:08:41 -0400